City of Upper Arlington
Housing Market Detailed Analysis

The regional narrative is that Central Ohio is projected to keep growing, driven by job creation (e.g., Intel, Honda-LG, and 4,000-worker advanced defense manufacturing facilities) and ongoing in-migration.

MTP’s regional forecast looks out to 2050. To meet Upper Arlington’s allocation of overall regional growth, the City should plan on adding about 53 housing units per year.

This analysis further breaks down the overall rate of household growth by household income. In this case, household incomes are grouped by their percent of HUD’s Area Median Income, which is $103,300 (Columbus, OH HUD Metro FMR Area 2025).

Should these trends continue, most of Upper Arlington’s growth looking out will be in the >190% AMI group. There will also be modest growth in the 50-80% AMI group. The other AMI groups are relatively stable.

As a landlocked and established community, infill and teardowns are required for redevelopment. However, the median land cost of $972K per acre for recent teardowns, combined with increasing costs (materials, labor, interest rates), leads to high priced new single-family homes.

With this set of constraints, the median income household can no longer afford the median house price in Upper Arlington.