Assessing housing needs and recommending policy enhancements.

The City of Pell City has taken initiative to explore the drivers of supply and demand by partnering with RPC and CommunityScale. This joint planning effort will explore market conditions, advise policy, and set forth an agenda for an orderly, sustainable development of Pell City.

Study goals:

: Describe how Pell City is changing in terms of growth, demographics, and housing needs.
: Engage residents and stakeholders to understand the community's housing goals and priorities.
: Identify a housing production target that meets local needs and supports broader economic development goals.
: Develop recommendations to update regulations toward more control over development character and quality.

Trends suggest Pell City will continue growing steadily over the next decade, especially among higher earners.

10-year projections indicate higher-income households will grow faster than other income groups.

This analysis sorts households by income in terms of Area Median Income (AMI), a standard benchmark used to inform housing policy. The 2025 AMI for the Pell City region is $95,900 and includes all of the Birmingham-Hoover metro area. For comparison, the estimated 2025 median income of households within Pell City is $77,700, or about 80% AMI.

AMI	Household income	Attainable price	Attainable rent	2025 hhds (estimated)	2035 hhds (projected)	Proj. net change (2025–2035)
<30%	<$29k	<$109k	<$650	653	645	-1%
30–60%	$29k – $58k	$109k – $217k	$650 – $1,300	1,208	1,283	6%
60–80%	$58k – $77k	$217k – $290k	$1,300 – $1,725	739	770	4%
80–100%	$77k – $96k	$290k – $362k	$1,725 – $2,150	553	606	10%
100–120%	$96k – $115k	$362k – $435k	$2,150 – $2,600	451	508	13%
>120%	>$115k	>$435k	>$2,600	1,670	1,853	11%
Total				5,274	5,665	7%

Compared to 2015, Pell City now includes more couples with kids and more seniors living alone.

Over the past decade, Pell City's mix of family types has shifted in ways that imply changes in local housing needs and preferences. For example:

More adults living with parents and roommates suggests younger adults want to live in Pell City but can't find and/or afford housing of their own.

More married couples with kids suggests Pell City is considered an increasingly attractive place to raise a family.

Fewer single parents suggests it is more expensive to raises a family in Pell City than it used to be.

More seniors living alone suggests some older residents may be interested in downsizing from a house that is too large for them into something smaller and lower-maintenance.

Projections indicate growth in younger and older populations but decline in middle-aged adults.

Over the next 10 years, Pell City is projected to grow across most age groups, adding particularly high numbers of kids and seniors as has been the trend for the previous decade.

At the same time, slower growth is expected among young adults and those reaching retirement age.

The number of middle-aged adults is expected to decline over the next decade. One anecdotally reported contributor to this trend is families moving to other school districts in the region when their children reach primary and secondary school age.

Pell City’s housing is well suited for families with kids but lacks alternatives for smaller households.

Most units in Pell City are detached single family with 3+ bedrooms. This housing mix is well-suited for families with kids, a growing portion of Pell City’s household population.

A relatively small share of units in Pell City are smaller, especially within the owner-occupied supply. However, most households in Pell City are smaller and without kids, suggesting the need for more alternatives to larger detached single family houses.

Additionally, most nonfamily households earn less than the median income and may need smaller, lower-cost housing options in the future. This would be especially true for seniors aging in houses that are larger than they need and increasingly difficult and costly to maintain.

Note: “vacant” units refer more often to vacation homes and short-term rentals than truly empty and unused units.

Pell City is less affordable than it used to be, but prices are still within reach for many.

Historically, Pell City has been a relatively affordable place to buy. Households earning the median income could comfortably afford the median home price since before 2010.

However, in recent years, as prices rose and interest rates spiked, the median income is no longer enough to afford the median priced home and lower-income households are increasingly priced out of the market.

Additionally, market data suggests the median listing price in Pell City is approaching $400k. However, these high listing prices have not translated to dramatically higher sale prices to date.

In the meantime, despite gradually rising prices, housing in Pell City remains attainable to a broad range of current and potential residents.

Pell City needs about 500 new units in 10 years to keep up with growth and close existing gaps.

To keep up with growth and fill current housing shortages, Pell City needs about 500 new units over the next 10 years. Recent market trends suggest the city could attract more units over this period, but these may not be of the type and quality community desires.

This 10-year housing production target accounts for projected household growth plus adjustments intended to relieve underlying market pressures, such as pent up demand and current shortages.

506	Total 10-year housing production target (2025-2035)

391	Net growth in households Projected total household growth from 2025 to 2035 is 9.7%.

58	Replacement housing Annual replacement rate for overall housing stock is 0.1%

166	Ownership vacancy adjustment Owner-occupied vacancy is 2.4%, above the minimum stable target of 1.5%

76	Rental vacancy adjustment Rental vacancy is 6.5%, below the minimum stable target of 7.4%

0	Overcrowding adjustment Overcrowding rate is 0.7%, below the National avg. of 3.4%

0	Substandard housing adjustment Substandard housing rate is 0.5%, above the National avg. of 0.4%

10-Year Housing Production Target Methodology

The housing production target represents the total number of new housing units needed over a 10-year period to accommodate projected growth while addressing existing market imbalances. This comprehensive approach accounts for six distinct components of housing need.

Net Household Growth forms the baseline demand, calculated by projecting net positive household growth as described earlier. The household formation rate captures demographic shifts and changing living arrangements over the forecast period.

Replacement Housing accounts for units lost to demolition, disaster, or conversion to non-residential use. The annual replacement rate is calculated from historical patterns in the American Community Survey's year-built data (B25034), identifying the typical rate at which older housing stock exits the market.

Vacancy Adjustments ensure healthy market functioning by comparing current vacancy rates to minimum stability targets. For owner-occupied units, a 1.5% vacancy rate enables normal market turnover for home sales. For rentals, a 7.4% vacancy rate (derived from historical market equilibrium analysis) allows reasonable choice and mobility. When current rates fall below these thresholds, additional units are needed to restore market fluidity. The adjustment equals the existing housing stock multiplied by the gap between target and actual vacancy rates. Source: Belsky, E. S., Drew, R. B., & McCue, D. (2007). Projecting the Underlying Demand for New Housing Units: Inferences from the Past, Assumptions about the Future (W07-7). Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University.

Overcrowding and Substandard Housing Adjustments address existing deficiencies in housing quality. Overcrowding (more than one person per room) and substandard conditions (lacking complete plumbing or kitchen facilities) are compared to national averages from ACS data. If local rates exceed national benchmarks, additional units are prescribed to provide adequate housing options. These adjustments equal zero when local conditions are less than the national norms.

The total production target sums all component to address market health and housing adequacy.

Most of Pell City's current housing stock was built between 1970 and 2009 (source: 2023 ACS 5-year). This chart will be updated to reflect units built or permitted since 2020.

Year built	Units built	Share of current stock
Built 2020 or later	TBD	TBD
Built 2010-2019	438	8%
Built 2000-2009	1,547	27%
Built 1990-1999	837	15%
Built 1980-1989	909	16%
Built 1970-1979	1,017	18%
Built 1960-1969	282	5%
Built 1950-1959	171	3%
Built 1940-1949	313	6%
Built 1939 or earlier	173	3%

$275,766	Median home price (Zillow, August 2025)
6.60%	Mortgage rate (FRED, August 2025)
0.38%	Property tax rate (2025)
0.35%	Homeowners insurance as percentage of home value (treasury.gov estimate, 2025)
30%	Percent of household income spent on housing costs
20%	Downpayment assumption

Pell City Housing Needs Assessment and Zoning Audit