Elkhart County
Housing Needs Assessment

The 65+ age cohort is projected to grow fastest over the next decade, becoming a significantly larger share of the population.

65+ leads net new household growth between 2024-34

Elkhart County’s population has been aging over the past decade, with the 65+ age group growing faster than other groups and projected to outpace others into the future.

Elkhart County has a relatively low middle-income population, suggesting a shortage of "missing middle" housing options.

These households typically represent a community’s “middle class” workforce, including public safety officers, skilled nurses, educators, and municipal employees. Elkhart County's low proportion of 80-120% AMI households is likely a result of limited available housing options at price points this group can afford, requiring they live elsewhere.

Most of Elkhart County's projected growth is among higher-income households (based on recent trends extended)

Non-white households are more likely to be low-income in Elkhart County

Elkhart County’s lowest income groups are its most racially diverse, especially the <30% and 30-60% AMI groups. Other income levels are relatively consistent in their proportional ratios of white and non-white households.

Family households tend to be higher income than non-family households

Elkhart County’s families with children are most prevalent in the >120% AMI group. Nonfamily households are predominantly low-income (this group includes one-person households). Families without children (such as couples) are most common at the >120% AMI level.

Most households aged 65+ are lower incomewhile most middle-aged households are higher income.

Most households in the >65 age group have incomes below 60% AMI. Households between 25-64 are most prevalent in the >120% AMI but also particularly numerous in the 30-60% and <30% AMI groups. The small group of youngest households (<25 years) are somewhat more concentrated at lower income levels.

People with disabilities are more likely to seniors.

Elkhart County’s resident population includes many people with disabilities that may restrict their housing choices. People with disabilities are most common in the 65+ age group but they are represented across all age groups at some level.

Lower-income households are much more likely cost-burdened (homeowners and renters alike)

In Elkhart County, most low-income households are cost burdened. Most households earning >80% AMI are not cost burdened.

Most single-family homes are ownership and most multi-family are rental.

Most ownership units are larger and most rentals are smaller

As home prices and interest rates rise, homeownership is increasingly out of reach in Elkhart County.

This chart compares the median listing price in Elkhart County with the home value affordable to a household earning the median household income. A wider gap means higher barrier to entry for first-time homebuyers and increased risk that an existing resident might be priced out of the community if they choose or need to move to a different house.

The calculations behind this chart include consideration of mortgage interest rates, typical down payments, and added monthly costs such as private mortgage insurance, property tax, home insurance, condo fees, and utilities.

Home values have more than doubled in the past decade.

This chart tracks the typical market value for single family homes and condos over the past several years. The adjacent table translates these values into monthly costs (mortgage + tax and other costs).

Most current homeowners may not be able to afford current prices.

This chart summarizes the distribution of costs across all ownership units in the area, most of which last transacted years ago. About 45% of Elkhart County's homeowners pay below $1,850/mo compared to the $2,213 and $2,763 required to afford a condo and single family on today’s market.

Today's average asking rent in Elkhart County is $989

The average asking rent should be understood as the typical cost to a household signing a new lease under current conditions. In reality, because this is a single average value, actual asking rents may vary depending on characteristics such as size, location, and property features but they will collectively track along this trendline.

About 57% of Elkhart County renters pay less than $1,650/mo.

This chart summarizes the distribution of costs across all ownership units in the area, most of which last transacted years ago.

These charts reveal the significant difference between how much most homeowners and renters currently pay per month and it would cost per month to own a home or rent a unit on today’s market.

Housing needs of current residents

This chart simulates the unit mix today’s local population would choose if all households could move into units that match their likely bedroom preferences and willingness to pay.

Current housing supply and gaps

These charts compare this “need” to the current housing stock. Highlighted positive gaps indicate under-supply; negative gaps indicate oversupply.

Elkhart County grew steady for many decades but construction has tapered off since 2010.

Elkhart County saw relatively consistent housing production for most of the 20th century but the pace has slowed considerably in the past two decades. This table chronicles the community's development history, indicating decades with relatively more or less construction activity. 2020 or later is approximate as new housing units are completed.

About 3,560 units have been permitted over the past decade.

Building permitting history is a proxy for construction activity over time. Elkhart County has seen relatively consistent permitting activity over the past decade, typically between 250-500 units per year with a couple outliers.

Most multifamily rental development since 2014 has been focused in and around downtown Elkhart and Goshen.

About 820 multifamily rental units have been built since 2014, consisting mostly of one bedroom units with relatively low rents.

Elkhart County's housing demand orginates from both current and new households.

Based on the analyses contained within the People and Place sections of this report, Elkhart County’s housing demand is driven by a number of factors that include both unmet demand among existing residents and new growth among projected and potential future residents. This chart illustrates demand origins on the left and demand drivers on the right.

There are not enough low-cost units to meet demand among low-income residents.

The gap analysis compares Elkhart County’s distribution of household incomes to its mix of housing options by cost to uncover potential supply shortages at different price points. The analysis identified a shortage of 12,502 units across a range of price points below $1,650 per month.

Adding units at these price points would help take pressure off existing residents currently experiencing cost burden.

A growing number of seniors will seek new housing options as they age.

Given changing housing preferences and needs as people age, it is likely a portion of these senior households will explore downsizing options such as a smaller, accessible unit with fewer bedrooms located in a walkable location. If 3% of these households sought new units to downsize into each year, the county would need to add 5,361 units appropriate for seniors over the next 10 years.

Elkhart County is expected to grow modestly over the next decade.

Recent trends suggests Elkhart County should expect to grow by 1,936 new households over the next 10 years.

To meet the trends extended growth projection, Elkhart County would need to add 2,335 housing units over the next decade. This figure combines demand driven by net household growth as well as other factors which also contribute to maintaining a suitable housing supply over time.

There are not enough units to house people employed in Elkhart County.

As a regional employment hub, Elkhart County contains more jobs than housing units. About 77.5% of the people working in Elkhart County live in the County as well. While many of the workers who commute into the city simply choose to live somewhere else, a portion of these workers may prefer to live in the County if the right housing options were available. Increasing the rate of local workforce living in Elkhart County by 5 percentage points by 2034 would require providing 7,944 additional households.

“Workforce housing” is typically considered affordable to 80-120% AMI, a segment of the population vulnerable to displacement if they cannot find adequate and affordable housing, including police, firefighters, teachers, skilled nurses, and municipal employees.

There is demand for 26,603 units over the next 10 years.

Each source of demand includes a different mix of household incomes.

Today's general housing preferences

Household structures have changed significantly since much of Elkhart County’s housing supply was built. Today, households are smaller, less likely to have one or more children, and more likely to include non-family or multi generational cohabitants. Future development should be designed to reflect the current diversity of household structures and wider range of housing needs and preferences.

🛌 Smaller units

Fewer bedrooms for smaller households.

🅿️ Parking optional

Enabling a car-free or car-lite lifestyle.

🧑🏽 Roommate-ready

Accommodating non-family households.

🌱 Green building

Efficient, low-impact design and systems.

👵🏼 Multigenerational

Space for adult children or elderly parents.

Workforce housing

“Workforce housing” is typically oriented to middle-income households that often consist of singles, couples, or young families. Jobs typically attributed to this group include public safety officers, educators, municipal employees, skilled nurses, and other occupations that often require some level of higher education and pay wages equating to 80-120% AMI.

💰 Moderate cost for families

Workforce families can afford units that cost $1,700 - 2,500 per month.

💵 Lower cost for singles

One-person workforce households cannot afford as much as dual-earner families.

🛏️ Fewer bedrooms

Workforce-oriented housing should include mostly 0-2 bedroom units.

🔨 Well-maintained

Workforce can afford rent/mortgage but large capital costs can be destabilizing.

📍 Near job centers

Households can save money by living close to work and commuting without a car.

Senior housing

Recent years have seen growing demand for housing in walkable, downtown or compact neighborhood environments. This can include both dense urban places as well as small town downtowns. Increasingly, the most desirable and competitive housing markets are those with access to the qualities and amenities of a downtown environment within walking distance.

👨‍👩‍👧 Universal design

Accommodating to people with limited mobility.

🧹 Low maintenance

Less space and less work to keep up.

💲 Energy efficient

Lower utility costs affordable on fixed income.

♿ Accessible

Single-level with ADA-compliant doors, baths, etc.

🤗 Social

Designed and located to promote an active community life.

Downtown living

Recent years have seen growing demand for housing in walkable, downtown or compact neighborhood environments. This can include both dense urban places as well as small town downtowns. Increasingly, the most desirable and competitive housing markets are those with access to the qualities and amenities of a downtown environment within walking distance.

🚶🏼 Walkability

More daily needs and wants accessible on foot.

🚌 Transit

Close to bus lines and train connections.

🏪 Amenities

Near restaurants, shops, and cultural destinations.

🏥 Services

Access to health and community services without a car.

🏘️️ Activity

Located in a lively and vibrant neighborhood.

Homeownership

Elkhart County has a lower rate of homeownership than the rest of the state but higher than the national average. While it is important to maintain a significant rental housing supply to provide options for people not interested in or ready to buy, a majority of people prefer homeownership for at least certain periods of their lives, such as starting and raising a family.

The Elkhart County community has expressed interest in stronger pathways to homeownership, especially among middle-income households. Adding more ownership units will contribute to this goal, along with other support such as financial assistance to overcome high down payment and financing costs.

Structure type

Given the variety of housing structure types available, it is important to consider how demand is distributed across the primary categories. The chart at right provides this breakdown by income to illustrate the variation in structure type demand from low-income to high-income households.

In general, lower-income households are more likely looking for multifamily and attached single family options whereas higher-income households are more likely looking for detached single family. Importantly, however, there is significant demand for all structure types at all income levels, suggesting a full range of options are needed across price points.

Denser housing types such as large multifamily developments are most suitable in and near downtowns and near employment centers. Smaller multifamily and attached single-family are suitable in most locations, such as in and around downtowns and as infill development within neighborhoods.