Assessing housing needs and opportunities within the non-metro area.

This study focuses on unincorporated Johnson County, IA plus the six small cities of Hills, Lone Tree, Oxford, Shueyville, Solon, and Swisher. These areas are referred to collectively as the “non-metro area.” Unless otherwise indicated, this study’s data excludes the cities of Iowa City, Coralville, University Heights, Tiffin, and North Liberty. These cities were assessed by a similar study concluding in 2025. The study also includes a focus on the county’s manufactured home parks (MHPs), including those within the metro area.

The study is funded by Johnson County.

Study goals:

: Assess equity needs such as housing stability, economic security, supportive community, and inclusion.
: Recommend housing needed to satisfy future demand in the unincorporated area and each small city.
: Identify gaps, barriers and housing needs and potentially preferences.
: Recommend feasible and attainable actions for local elected officials to consider and implement.

Johnson County’s non-metro area is expected to continue growing at a steady pace.

Non-metro Johnson County’s household population has been growing at a steady pace over the past 15 years. If this trend continues, the county can expect to add more than 700 net new households over the next decade, a 6-7% increase.

The non-metro area’s population is aging rapidly, a potential liability for long-term growth.

Like many parts of the country, non-metro Johnson County’s population has been aging significantly over recent years. The non-metro area needs to continue attracting young people and new families to keep the community sustainable in the long-term.

There is not enough housing diversity to reflect current and emerging market preferences.

While Johnson County’s non-metro area has a large supply of owner-occupied houses, there are not enough options for households interested in alternative choices.

For example, to help grow the population of young adults, the non-metro area needs a higher share of rental units which are often a new household’s entrypoint to a community before purchasing a home. And, as the non-metro area’s growing 65+ population ages, many will be looking for opportunities to downsize without leaving the community, such as by trading their larger house for small ownership options like condos and townhomes.

Most of the non-metro area’s housing stock consists of single family homes. There is a relatively small supply of attached single family (i.e. townhomes and duplexes) and multifamily available. While this mix aligns with the preferences of the region’s higher-income households, it does not offer enough choices for middle- and lower-income households who tend to prefer a wider range of types, including more multifamily.

Trends suggest growth among higher and lower incomes and a shrinking “middle class.”

As Johnson County’s non-metro area grows, its income mix is becoming more polarized, adding households among higher and lower income levels at a faster rate than those in middle-income levels.

Growth at higher income levels could translate to opportunities for new market rate housing. More lower-income households add pressure to the naturally affordable housing stock and demand for more subsidized units. The share of middle-income households could increase with the addition of more moderately priced housing options.

AMI level	Total households	Household income range	Attainable home price max	Attainable rent max
<30%	1,683	<$35,460	<$114,000	<$800
30-60%	2,099	$35,460-$70,920	$114,000-$227,500	$800-$1600
60-80%	1,366	$70,920-$94,560	$227,500-$303,500	$1,600-$2,150
80-100%	1,255	$70,920-$94,560	$303,500-$379,500	$2,150-$2,650
100-120%	1,101	$70,920-$94,560	$379,500-$455,000	$2,650-$3,200
>120%	3,875	>$141,840	>$455,000	>$3,200

The non-metro area is home to fewer families with children and more single people than 10 years ago.

Compared to 2015, Johnson County’s non-metro area has seen a 16% decline in the number of families with children. At the same time, there have been increases in the numbers of adults living with roommates, single person households, and seniors living alone.

Housing in the non-metro area is relatively affordable, but only to middle and upper incomes.

Historically, Johnson County’s non-metro area has been a relatively affordable place to buy. Households earning the median income could comfortably afford well in excess of the median home price since before 2010. However, in recent years, as prices rise and interest rates spike, the median income is just enough to afford the median priced home and lower-income households are increasingly priced out of the market.

Johnson County is growing faster overall than the non-metro on its own.

Based on recent trends, Johnson County market is projected to grow by about 11%, nearly twice as fast as the non-metro area on its own. With the right land use policies and housing strategies, the non-metro area could capture a greater share of the county’s overall growth moving forward.

Increasingly, Johnson County’s growth is being driven by higher income households who could support market-rate construction.

Nearly half of the non-metro area's housing stock has been built or permitted since 1990. Activity was highest during the 90s and has gradually trailed off since, with relatively few new dwelling unit construction permits issued this decade by comparison to prior decades.

Year built	Units built	Share of current stock
Permitted since 2020	299	2%
Built 2010-2019	1,131	9%
Built 2000-2009	1,594	13%
Built 1990-1999	2,387	20%
Built 1980-1989	1,011	8%
Built 1970-1979	1,676	14%
Built 1960-1969	961	8%
Built 1950-1959	559	5%
Built 1940-1949	262	2%
Built 1939 or earlier	2,108	18%

The non-metro area needs about 950 new housing units over the next 10 years to keep up with growth.

The 950 unit housing production target is derived from a combination of the non-metro area’s growth projection and other adjustments intended maintain a healthy housing stock and relieve underlying market pressures such as pent up demand for homeownership.

This target reflects the production necessary to maintain the non-metro area’s current growth rate which is slower than Johnson County overall. The non-metro area would need to add additional units beyond this target to catch up with county-wide growth rates.

This 10-year housing production target accounts for projected household growth plus adjustments intended to relieve underlying market pressures, such as pent up demand and current shortages.

1,437	Total 10-year housing production target (2025-2035)

1,133	Net growth in households Projected total household growth from 2025 to 2035 is 9.8%.

62	Replacement housing Annual replacement rate for overall housing stock is 0.1%

166	Ownership vacancy adjustment Owner-occupied vacancy is 0.4%, below the minimum stable target of 1.5%

76	Rental vacancy adjustment Rental vacancy is 6.9%, below the minimum stable target of 7.4%

0	Overcrowding adjustment Overcrowding rate is 0.4%, below the National avg. of 3.4%

0	Substandard housing adjustment Substandard housing rate is 0.2%, below the National avg. of 0.4%

10-Year Housing Production Target Methodology

The housing production target represents the total number of new housing units needed over a 10-year period to accommodate projected growth while addressing existing market imbalances. This comprehensive approach accounts for six distinct components of housing need.

Net Household Growth forms the baseline demand, calculated by projecting net positive household growth as described earlier. The household formation rate captures demographic shifts and changing living arrangements over the forecast period.

Replacement Housing accounts for units lost to demolition, disaster, or conversion to non-residential use. The annual replacement rate is calculated from historical patterns in the American Community Survey's year-built data (B25034), identifying the typical rate at which older housing stock exits the market.

Vacancy Adjustments ensure healthy market functioning by comparing current vacancy rates to minimum stability targets. For owner-occupied units, a 1.5% vacancy rate enables normal market turnover for home sales. For rentals, a 7.4% vacancy rate (derived from historical market equilibrium analysis) allows reasonable choice and mobility. When current rates fall below these thresholds, additional units are needed to restore market fluidity. The adjustment equals the existing housing stock multiplied by the gap between target and actual vacancy rates. Source: Belsky, E. S., Drew, R. B., & McCue, D. (2007). Projecting the Underlying Demand for New Housing Units: Inferences from the Past, Assumptions about the Future (W07-7). Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University.

Overcrowding and Substandard Housing Adjustments address existing deficiencies in housing quality. Overcrowding (more than one person per room) and substandard conditions (lacking complete plumbing or kitchen facilities) are compared to national averages from ACS data. If local rates exceed national benchmarks, additional units are prescribed to provide adequate housing options. These adjustments equal zero when local conditions are less than the national norms.

The total production target sums all component to address market health and housing adequacy.

Explore Johnson County's household and housing data on the map.

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$354,456	Median home price (Zillow, May 2025)
6.78%	Mortgage rate (FRED, May 2025)
1.71%	Property tax rate (estimate, 2025)
0.35%	Homeowners insurance as percentage of home value (treasury.gov estimate, 2025)
30%	Percent of household income spent on housing costs
20%	Downpayment assumption

Johnson County Housing Study