City of Greenfield
Housing Plan Executive Summary

What is "attainable housing?"

A primary focus of this - and any - housing plan is the degree to which the community has adequate access to “attainable housing” options. In other words, can local residents attain housing within their community that meets their needs at price points they can reasonably afford given their incomes? In this way, “attainable housing” and “affordable housing” are synonymous. The following concepts are involved in this determination:

💸 Household income

Combines wages and other earnings across all members of the household, including income from employment as well as pensions, social security, disability benefits, etc. (about 69% of Greenfield residents report employment earnings).

🔑 Affordable

Defined as housing which costs no more than 30% of a household’s income.

🏠 Housing costs

Includes primary expenses such as rent and mortgage payments as well as other fundamental expenses including property tax, insurance, and utilities.

AMI level	Income range	Attainable rent	Attainable purchase	Greenfield households
<30%	<$28k	$670	$70k	2,025
30-60%	$28-56k	$1,345	$155k	1,921
60-80%	$56-74k	$1,775	$210k	1,139
80-100%	$74-93k	$2,255	$271k	689
100-120%	$93-112k	$2,690	$326k	565
>120%	>$112k	>$2,690	>$326k	1,849

The City's role in housing production.

This plan provides a detailed picture of housing needs and opportunities in Greenfield followed by recommendations and an action plan to guide the City’s housing policy and investment strategies over the next 10 years. The following provides context for how the City fits into the housing production process and what it can and cannot do to promote development. The City’s role and responsibilities related to housing production include:

⚖️ Regulation

Shaping, administering, and enforcing regulations like zoning and building codes

✅ Permitting

Reviewing and approving new development proposals and construction

📑 Long-range planning

Setting goals and land use plans to guide future development

🏆 Grant administration

Applying for grant funding and managing state and federal grant allocations within funding guidelines

🏦 Economic development

Promoting Greenfield’s assets and opportunities to potential investors like employers and developers

What the City can do to promote new housing:

• Convene community conversation about housing goals and priorities
• Modify regulations to encourage more housing (ex. zoning)
• Leverage select local funding streams toward housing development (ex. CPA)
• Create incentives and public-private partnerships to catalyze development (ex. TIF)
• Apply for grant funding to support housing production
• Dedicate surplus City-owned property for housing development
• Use Home Rule authority to create regulations, laws and programs to encourage housing production, provided they are not inconsistent with state laws.

What the City cannot do:

• Build housing on its own
• Change regulations without support from Council and the community
• Influence fundamental market factors like interest rates and construction costs
• Create new funding streams other than those generally authorized by state government (ex. housing vacancy tax).

Greenfield’s housing need over the next 10 years is driven by 5 areas of demand.

Attainability gaps: The households that are currently paying more than 30% of their income for housing.

Potential downsizers: Households age 65+ who would prefer a smaller, more accessible unit without leaving town.

Organic growth: The households expected to move to Greenfield based on recent growth trends.

Essential workforce: Middle-income employees who work in Greenfield but can’t find adequate or attainable housing to live in town too.

Market-rate housing: Higher-income households who would support new, largely unsubsidized development.

Greenfield should plan for 475-800 new units over the next 10 years.

This totals 675-1,000 units including current pipeline development.

Based on the housing needs assessment analysis and the community’s stated housing policy goals and priorities, the charts at right summarize the housing production opportunity the community should plan for over the next 10 years in terms of lead development entity (top) and affordability level (bottom)

The production opportunity is presented as a range, from a lower, more achievable number to a higher, more aspirational goal. This provides flexibility to set baseline expectations at a realistic level but also support a more aggressive vision that may be possible with strong proactive action and successful collaboration with stakeholders and partners.

Affordabilty level	New units
<30% AMI	50-60 units
30-60% AMI	190-245 units
60-80% AMI	75-125 units
80-100% AMI	60-155 units
100-120% AMI	50-105 units
>120% AMI	50-110 units
Total	475-800 units
Including pipeline development:	675-1000 units

The 65+ population is projected to increase by 30% over the next decade.

This chart illustrates trends in population by age cohort, both historic and projected. The projection is based on recent trends extended. Depending on economic, policy, and other conditions, the actual future age distribution may vary over time.

Over 25% of Greenfield's population includes seniors who may need to downsize someday.

Greenfield’s population includes a much higher proportion of seniors than the state overall. More specifically, Greenfield has much higher rates of 1-person senior households, including nearly 4 times the rate of renters. Many households in this group might be interested in alternative housing options more tailored to a single seniors’ needs, incomes, and lifestyle preferences.

Household group	Share of total Greenfield households	Share of total Massachusetts households
Age 65+	36.0%	25.0%
Age 65+ 1-person	20.5%	9.8%
65+ 1–2 person in 3+ bedroom units	26.0%	18.6%

Greenfield includes a conspicuously low "missing middle" population.

These households earn 80-120% AMI and typically represent a community’s “middle class” workforce, including public safety officers, skilled nurses, educators, and municipal employees. Greenfield’s low proportion of 80-120% AMI households is likely a result of limited available housing options at price points this group can afford, requiring they live elsewhere.

AMI level	Total households	Household income range	Monthly affordable housing costs
Below 30%	2,025	Below $27,930	Below $700
30-60%	1,921	$27,930-55,860	$700-1,400
60-80%	1,139	$55,860-74,480	$1,400-1,850
80-100%	689	$74,480-93,100	$1,850-2,350
100-120%	56	$93,100-111,720	$2,350-2,800
Above 120%	1,849	Above $111,720	Above $2,800

Most of Greenfield’s projected growth is among low-income households.

AMI Group	2022	2034	Change
Below 30%	2,063	2,444	+23.0%
30-60%	1,948	2,210	+16.6%
60-80%	1,135	1,099	-3.9%
80-100%	678	569	-18.7%
100-120%	550	403	-30.4%
Above 120%	1,856	1,922	+4.3%

Non-white households are almost twice as likely to be lowest income in Greenfield.

Greenfield’s lowest income groups are its most racially diverse, especially the <30% AMI group. Other income levels are relatively consistent in their ratios of white and non-white households.

Family households tend to be higher income than non-family households.

Families with children are concentrated in the >120% and <80% AMI groups. Nonfamily households are predominantly low-income (this group includes one-person households). Families without children (such as couples) are most common at the >120% AMI level.

Most households aged 65+ are lower income. Other age groups are more evenly distributed across incomes.

Most households in the >65 age group have incomes below 60% AMI. Households between 25-64 are most prevalent in the >120% AMI but also particularly numerous in the 30-60% and <30% AMI groups. The small group of youngest households (<25 years) are relatively evenly distributed across all AMI levels.

People with disabilities are much more likely to be lower-income.

Greenfield’s resident population includes many people with disabilities that may restrict their housing choices. Lower-income households are more likely to include people with one or more of these disabilities but there are significant numbers across the income spectrum. This chart summarizes people with disabilities by income level. People with multiple disabilities are counted multiple times in this dataset.

Lower-income households are much more likely cost-burdened.

In Greenfield, most low-income households are cost burdened. Most households earning >80% AMI are not cost burdened. This pattern applies to both homeowners and renters alike.

15% of Greenfield’s housing units are committed affordable.

The local housing stock includes a mix of committed affordable housing supported by federal programs such as Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) and Housing Choice Vouchers. For households with particularly low incomes, these units may represent one of the only housing options available to them.

Most single-family homes are ownership and most multi-family are rental.

This graph inventories the local housing stock in terms of each unit's structure type, a characteristic defined as the number of units in the building that contains a given unit.

Most ownership units are larger and most rentals are smaller.

This graph inventories the local housing stock in terms of bedroom count by unit by tenure. The majority of Greenfield’s housing units are two bedroom or larger, especially among ownership units.

Homeownership is increasingly out of reach.

This chart compares the median listing price in Greenfield with the home value affordable to a household earning the median household income. A wider gap means higher barrier to entry for first-time homebuyers and increased risk that an existing resident might be priced out of the community if they choose or need to move to a different house.

Most current homeowners may not be able to afford current prices.

This chart tracks the typical market value for single family homes and condos over the past several years. The adjacent table translates these values into monthly costs (mortgage + tax and other costs).

About 45% of Greenfield homeowners pay less than $1,850/mo.

This chart summarizes the distribution of costs across all ownership units in the area, most of which last transacted years ago. About 45% of Greenfield homeowners pay below $1,850/mo compared to the $2,213 and $2,763 required to afford a condo and single family on today’s market.

Today’s average asking rent in Greenfield is about $1,600.

Unit size	Greenfield asking rent	Recently built developments asking rent
Studio	$856	$1,919
1 bed	$1,406	$1,804
2 beds	$1,764	$2,188
3 beds	$2,179	N/A

The rents indicated at right compare recent listings in Greenfield with recently built market rate rental housing within an hour drive from Greenfield (13 properties with 10+ units built since 2018). The gap between these contemporary benchmarks and prevailing local rents help explain why developers seem to be passing over Greenfield for the time being. However, this gap may be narrowing, improving the prospects for new construction in Greenfield.

About 40% of Greenfield renters pay less than $1,600/mo.

The average asking rent should be understood as the typical cost to a household signing a new lease under current conditions. In reality, because this is a single average value, actual asking rents may vary depending on characteristics such as size, location, and property features but they will collectively track along this trendline. The “Current renter costs” total includes newly occupied units along with units that have been occupied for longer (and where rent may have been set at a much lower rate than today’s asking price).

Most residents need low-cost housing, though many can also afford market rate.

This chart simulates the unit mix today’s local population would choose if all households could move into units that match their likely bedroom preferences and willingness to pay.

Housing gaps are focused at the low-cost end of the spectrum.

Monthly cost	Need	Supply	Gap
Below $700	2252	2063	189
$700-$1,400	2285	1948	337
$1,400-$1,850	1207	1135	72
$1,850-$2,350	703	678	25
$2,350-$2,800	506	550	-44
Above $2,800	1276	1855	-579

Most of Greenfield’s housing stock was built before 1960.

Nearly three quarters of Greenfield’s housing production took place before 1970 with very little new construction in recent years. This table chronicles the community's development history, indicating decades with relatively more or less construction activity. 2020 or later is approximate as new housing units are completed.

About 70 units have been permitted over the past decade.

Building permitting history is a proxy for construction activity over time. Greenfield has seen very little new permits during the past decade. While there are some proposed developments on the horizon, none have reached the building permit stage yet.

Greenfield's housing demand orginates from both current and new households.

Based on the analyses contained within the People and Place sections of this report, Greenfield’s housing demand is driven by a number of factors that include both unmet demand among existing residents and new growth among projected and potential future residents. This chart illustrates demand origins on the left and demand drivers on the right.

Each demand driver in more detail below followed by an estimated quantification of total demand by income level.

There are 623 too few units priced below $2,350 per month.

The gap analysis compares Greenfield’s distribution of household incomes to its mix of housing options by cost to uncover potential supply shortages at different price points. The analysis identified a shortage of 623 units across a range of price points below $2,350 per month.

Adding units at these price points would help take pressure off existing residents currently experiencing cost burden.

Downsizing seniors could drive demand for 468 new units over the next 10 years.

65+ households of 1-2 people in 3+ bedroom units	1,560
Potential annual downsizing rate	3%
Units needed to accommodate downsizers over 10 years	468

Greenfield needs 417 new units to keep up with projected growth over the next 10 years based on recent trends.

While the future growth rate could change and the City could choose to expand production to induce demand or tap sources of latent demand, this represents a baseline minimum target to aim for.

Need header here: Organic growth requires 460 units in the next 10 years?

Driver	Units needed	Details
Household growth	417	Forecasted from 2024 to 2034.
Overcrowding adjustment	0	Local rate of 1.3% is below the national average of 3.4%.
Replacement housing	43	0.05% of the housing stock is replaced annually
Vacancy adjustment	0	Local rate of 5.3% is above the healthy market minimum of 5%
Substandard adjustment	0	Local rate of 0.1% is below the national average of 0.4%
Total units needed	460	To keep up with growth and maintain a healthy housing stock

To meet the trends extended growth projection, Greenfield would need to add 460 housing units over the next decade. This production target combines demand driven by net household growth as well as other factors which also contribute to maintaining a suitable housing supply over time.

More units are needed to house essential workers employed in Greenfield.

Jobs in Greenfield	9,138
Workers that live and work in Greenfield	2,175
Portion of local workforce that live in Greenfield	24%
Additional workforce households (and units) target by 2034	496

As a regional employment hub, Greenfield contains more jobs than housing units. However, only about 24% of the people working in Greenfield live in the city as well. While many of the workers who commute into the city simply choose to live somewhere else, a portion of these workers may prefer to live in the city if the right housing options were available.

Greenfield could support up to 55 new market rate units per year by drawing from untapped regional demand.

Region size	152,894 renter households
Greenfield size	4,499 renter households
Greenfield share of the market	2.9% of the region
Regional market rate unit potential	1,873 units/year
Greenfield's potential share	55 units/year

Greenfield could consider positioning to attract a larger share of the Western Mass market rate housing demand. These units could be added on top of those intended to address local housing needs.

Each source of demand includes a different mix of household incomes.

Today's general housing preferences

Household structures have changed significantly since much of Greenfield’s housing supply was built. Today, households are smaller, less likely to have one or more children, and more likely to include non-family or multi generational cohabitants. Future development should be designed to reflect the current diversity of household structures and wider range of housing needs and preferences.

🛌 Smaller units

Fewer bedrooms for smaller households.

🅿️ Parking optional

Enabling a car-free or car-lite lifestyle.

🪴 Green building

Efficient, low-impact design and systems.

👵🏻 Multigenerational

Space for adult children or elderly parents.

Workforce housing

“Workforce housing” is typically oriented to middle-income households that often consist of singles, couples, or young families. Jobs typically attributed to this group include public safety officers, educators, municipal employees, skilled nurses, and other occupations that often require some level of higher education and pay wages equating to 80-120% AMI.

👨‍👩‍👧💰 Moderate cost for families

Workforce families can afford units that cost $1,700 - 2,500 per month.

🧍🏽💵 Lower cost for singles

One-person workforce households cannot afford as much as dual-earner families.

🛏️ Fewer bedrooms

Workforce-oriented housing should include mostly 0-2 bedroom units.

🔨 Well-maintained

Workforce can afford rent/mortgage but large capital costs can be destabilizing.

📍 Near job centers

Households can save money by living close to work and commuting without a car.

Downtown living

Recent years have seen growing demand for housing in walkable, downtown or compact neighborhood environments. This can include both dense urban places as well as small town downtowns. Increasingly, the most desirable and competitive housing markets are those with access to the qualities and amenities of a downtown environment within walking distance.

🚶🏼 Walkability

More daily needs and wants accessible on foot.

🚌 Transit

Close to bus lines and train connections.

🏪 Amenities

Near restaurants, shops, and cultural destinations.

🏥 Services

Access to health and community services without a car.

🏘️️ Activity

Located in a lively and vibrant neighborhood.

Senior housing

Many people 65 and older explore transitions to housing units that allow them to age-in-place, offering accessible design, enabling lower-cost living, and supporting an active, community-oriented lifestyle.

While some seniors are attracted to purpose-built, age-restricted housing developments, others prefer housing in more conventional settings that is designed or retrofit to accommodate aging people.

👨‍👩‍👧 Universal design

Accommodating to people with limited mobility.

🧹 Low maintenance

Less space and less work to keep up.

💲 Energy efficient

Lower utility costs affordable on fixed income.

♿ Accessible

Single-level with ADA-compliant doors, baths, etc.

🤗 Social

Designed and located to promote an active community life.

Homeownership

Greenfield has a lower rate of homeownership than the rest of the state or the national average. While it is important to maintain a significant rental housing supply to provide options for people not interested in or ready to buy, a majority of people prefer homeownership for at least certain periods of their lives, such as starting and raising a family.

The Greenfield community has expressed interest in stronger pathways to homeownership, especially among middle-income households. Adding more ownership units will contribute to this goal, along with other support such as financial assistance to overcome high down payment and financing costs.

Greenfield should plan for between 475 and 800 new units over the next 10 years (675-1,000 units including pipeline development).

Distinct from demand, the production opportunity represents the number of units that realistically could be developed over the next 10 years based on this plan’s analysis, stakeholder interviews, and recommendations.

The chart at right organizes the housing production opportunity by development entity to illustrate the affordability levels each delivers and in what quantity relative to others.

The table below translates AMI levels into the rents and purchase prices households earning these incomes can afford without incurring cost burden.

AMI	Attainable Rent	Attainable Purchase
<30%	$670	$70,000
30-60%	$1,345	$155,000
60-80%	$1,775	$210,000
80-100%	$2,255	$271,000
100-120%	$2,690	$326,000

Read the full report

Thank you for reviewing this online summary of the Greenfield Housing Plan. Use the link at right to access full details on the Plan's analysis, findings, and policy recommendations.

📄 Read the full report