Housing Needs Assessment and Market Study

Household growth and adjustments

The market potential of 176 households per year is higher than the strongest growth since 2010, which was 136 households in 2022. In the chart at right, the rate of growth is also compared to the SMTC projection and the average growth rate since 2010. Given this strong market demand and fast absorption rates, 176 new units should maintain a healthy vacancy rate of under 7%.

The final line adds in the average additional households that would be anticipated as a result of the Micron project. The core assumption is based on the 2022 Economic Analysis for the Micron’s population projection (Table 2.3). This additional population living in the regional market area is then converted to an expected number of households and similarly analyzed for housing preferences and capture rate.

How does Downtown Syracuse compare to peer communities?

Comparable communities help market studies by providing benchmarks on key metrics such as growth, demographics, and income across areas with similar socioeconomic or geographic characteristics. In this case, each community was chosen for its relevance in size, regional context, and overall demographic profiles, allowing for a meaningful comparison of trends and conditions.

Downtown Syracuse is compared to other neighborhoods within Syracuse including Westcott/ University Hill, Tipperary Hill, and Franklin Square / Lakefront, as well as downtown neighborhoods in other upstate New York cities, Rochester and Buffalo.

The average household size for households living in Downtown Syracuse is typically in line with other upstate New York downtown neighborhoods.
Downtown Syracuse’s average household size is significantly smaller than the average household size in other Syracuse neighborhoods that are less urban, particularly Tipperary Hill and Westcott / University Hill. These other neighborhoods typically have larger units and more family households.

Median household income has more than tripled since 2010 in Downtown Syracuse, though it remains in the middle of the pack compared to other neighborhoods. Franklin Square / Lakefront and Tipperary Hill stand out as other neighborhoods in Syracuse with significantly higher median household incomes compared to Downtown Syracuse.
The dramatic spikes in Downtown’s income levels are likely associated with the fact that the number of households has been increasing rapidly but from a low starting point, so there is a larger margin of error on the counts.
Despite these fluctuations, the overall trajectory since 2010 has been one of strong growth.

Establishing the context for Downtown’s housing market potential and need

Downtown Syracuse's housing future is shaped by several critical factors:

Downtown's strategic importance in planning

Regional and city plans consistently identify Downtown Syracuse as a vital center for growth, emphasizing mixed-use development and leveraging major investments to meet future housing needs. Recent comprehensive planning efforts by both the City of Syracuse and Onondaga County, alongside multiple housing studies and a dedicated housing taskforce by CenterState CEO, consistently underscore the strategic importance of Downtown Syracuse for regional growth and vitality. These plans collectively recognize Downtown as a key hub for employment, culture, and increasingly, residential living.

ReZone's favorable regulatory framework

The recent ReZone initiative builds on the flexible MX-5 zoning (no height/lot size limits), creating significant opportunities for dense residential development.

Micron's major economic catalyst

The upcoming Micron facility is projected to generate over 50,000 direct and indirect jobs regionally, creating substantial new housing demand that Downtown is well-positioned to help absorb.

I-81's transformative infrastructure project (I-81)

Replacing the I-81 viaduct with the Community Grid will unlock approximately 18 acres of developable land and significantly improve connections to adjacent neighborhoods and institutions, enhancing Downtown's attractiveness for new housing investment.

A brick-forward image of a Downtown street.

Demographic trends

The Syracuse Metropolitan Transportation Council (SMTC) has a model of household and job growth for the region out to 2050. For Downtown, the forecasted growth in households is 63%. Jobs are forecasted to increase by 28%.

Since 2019, 50% of residents who moved to Downtown Syracuse came from outside of Onondaga County, so the analysis should also consider opportunities to attract more residents and investment from beyond Onondaga County.

Downtown has had explosive growth since 2015, including adding higher income households. Since 2015, Downtown Syracuse’s growth has primarily been driven by heads of households ages 25-44 (62% of growth), followed by ages 45-64 (22% of growth).

A household with the Area Median Income (AMI) of $104,100 for Syracuse, NY MSA can afford to purchase a $294,000 house given today’s mortgage rates, property taxes, and other factors.

Single-person households and seniors living alone are strong growth areas and could be targeted with new units that meet their needs and preferences.

Family types in the City and Downtown

Source: 2015-2023 Census American Communities Survey. These charts show the extent of recent growth and what types of households have been the driving force behind the growth, which in Downtown has focused on smaller non-family households.

Who visits Downtown and when?

Downtown Syracuse’s mix of people shifts over the course of the week. Residents provide the most stable but smallest component. Their relative presence is highest on the quietest day for workers. Weekdays are balanced between business and leisure, Friday triggers a visitor surge, and the weekend is almost entirely leisure-driven.

Hourly patterns trace a classic 24-hour downtown cycle. In the pre-dawn hours residents dominate, making up just over half of everyone Downtown. Between 6 and 9AM, the employee share rockets upward. After 5PM the composition flips again as visitors swell. Through the late evening and past midnight visitors gradually recede, residents reclaim a larger slice, and the cycle resets.

Residential users are constant but a small fraction of the overall activity in Downtown. Friday is the busiest day.

Midday is the busiest time of day, with the most visitors coming at 7PM.

Placer.ai analyzes aggregated, statistical foot traffic data from mobile device location data, and while it doesn't explicitly define what constitutes a "visit," it's reasonable to assume that a visit is generally considered to be a period of time spent within a defined area, or point of interest (POI), and driving through a POI likely wouldn't be counted as a visit.

Market data

Rents are from CoStar, 2025. Small units are one bedroom unless the property only has studios. Large units are two bedrooms unless the property only has three bedrooms.
The average rent for structures built or renovated since 2021 is $2.99 per square foot, including Bentley Lofts, The Treasury, Corbett Corner, and Addis Building.

Market demand analysis results

The total annual market potential of 176 units for the next five years is 30% above the best one-year growth of 136 households in 2022. 176 units includes both market-rate and required affordable housing at 80% of AMI. About half of this demand for both condos and apartments is for studios and one-bedroom units. This information can help policy makers, advocates, and developers target strategies in areas that have the most potential impact.

Frequently asked questions

What housing types are missing Downtown?

The deepest pools of demand and capture rate indicate that the most demanded housing types are rental apartments between $1,500-$2,000 that are studios or 1 beds, with some demand for 2 beds.

What amenities should be recommended to developers of housing units?

Residents and property managers report that requested amenities include mail storage and parcel room, bicycle storage room, roof deck with functional use, parking, fitness center, smaller units with natural light and eat-in kitchens that are easy to furnish.

How much more demand is there for specific types of housing and does this keep Downtown at a healthy occupancy rate?

Given this strong market demand and fast absorption rates, if 176 new units were delivered annually, Downtown should maintain a healthy vacancy rate of under 7%.

How does the ReZone Syracuse initiative affect housing in Downtown?

The ReZone initiative, particularly the MX-5 zoning for Downtown, is highly favorable for housing development. It removes traditional constraints like maximum building heights, minimum lot sizes, and minimum parking requirements, offering flexibility for dense residential projects. It also mandates that new and substantially renovated multifamily projects with 20 or more units designate 10-12% of units as affordable (at 80% AMI).

Who is primarily moving to Downtown Syracuse?

Recent growth in Downtown has been largely driven by householders aged 25-44, who accounted for 62% of the growth since 2015. Notably, 50% of residents who moved to Downtown between 2019 and 2023 came from outside Onondaga County, indicating Downtown's appeal to newcomers to the region.

Downtown Syracuse Housing Needs Assessment and Market Study